Today’s US mid-term elections involve votes for the whole of the lower chamber of Congress (the House of Representatives), around a third of the Senate and various State Governorships around the country. It will be seen as an indication of the popularity of the Biden Presidency after two years. The party holding the White House typically tend to do badly in the mid-terms and polls suggest that this time will be no exception. The Democrats currently control both chambers of Congress but they seem to lose the House, while the Senate looks a close call. Republican control of either will make it more difficult for President Biden to govern over the next two years and particularly to pass new legislation. Moreover, a big loss will probably boost speculation that Biden will not try for re-election although media reports currently suggest that he does indeed plan to run. 

In the Eurozone, much stronger than expected September retail sales in Germany was a signal that today’s measure for the region as a whole may have gone up for the first time in four months. Nevertheless, high inflation remains an ongoing risk to spending power.

For the US, the NFIB index for October will provide a timely update on trends in the small business sector. The September reading showed optimism up to its highest level since May. However, already released data for some of October’s results pointed to a slippage in hiring plans.

Bank of England Chief Economist Pill, who on Friday reaffirmed the message that market expectation for UK interest rates may be excessive, is scheduled to speak twice today. The first appearance is a speech on monetary policy, while later he will talk to a House of Lords Committee about issues with labour shortages. The latter appearance may offer new insight into why so many workers have left the labour force over the past few years (see chart).