The holiday period is a traditionally low-volatility period for FX, even as the Santa rally in equities plays out. The broader market tone is constructive, guided by generally positive Omicron headlines. This is seeing the safe haven yen underperform while …
Sterling has been enjoying life in the build up to the holiday period and is vying with AUD as the leading G10 currency this week. There is some relief that risks around the new Omicron variant are now more manageable …
This pair has been a bit messy over the past few months as central bank divergence has given way to rallying commodities, especially iron ore, being one of the main drivers. Positioning too, of speculators and the big players has …
The BoE surprised many yesterday, including us, with their 15bp rate hike. It was a coin toss before the meeting with rising inflation and a strong labour market forcing the issue at some point. But when the voting pattern goes …
It’s a kind of “Super Thursday” today with both the ECB and the Bank of England meeting in quick succession. This will cause competing forces on both currencies, not least on EUR/GBP. (We note there is no press conference or …
Will the December dot plots see similar moves to the more hawkish changes that were made after the June and September ones at tonight’s FOMC meeting? Consensus fully expect the Fed to move into the next tightening phase which currently …
With the emergence of Omicron and more restrictions, markets are dialling back their bets on the Bank of England raising rates this Thursday. There is now less than a one-in-three chance of a 15bp move, compared to around 75% late …
Three central banks, two tough decisions and a new Covid variant all add to the volatile mix this week. The gaggle of meetings, eight in the G20, are all mostly “live”, though it’s a given what the most important one …
Today sees the key release of the week, and possibly month, in the form of the US inflation data. This seems to be the new NFP release as policymakers’ focus shifts to how long elevated price pressures will last. Consensus …
AUD/JPY has historically been known as something of an FX “bellwether” in judging the overall risk mood. The high yielding, risk sensitive aussie is paired with the classic safe haven currency which investors flock to in times of stress. That …
