The Descending Triangle pattern, and how to use it The descending triangle is a bearish chart pattern that is formed by a horizontal support level and a downward sloping resistance level. This pattern is created when the price of an …
The Cup And Handle pattern, and how to use it The cup and handle is a chart pattern that is formed by a “cup” shaped pattern and a subsequent “handle” that looks like a small flag or triangle. This pattern …
There was renewed caution during the Asia-Pacific trading session after the recent rally in stock markets as investors await Thursday’s key US CPI inflation data. The Nikkei is higher as it plays catch-up after reopening from a public holiday in Japan. Comments from US Fed officials added to the more cautious mood. Both the Fed’s Daly and Bostic said that they expect policy rates to continue to increase. In the UK, Bank of England Chief Economist Pill yesterday noted signs that the labour market is starting to turn but he also said that inflation could prove to be more persistent. His speech suggests that policy rates will be raised again in February.
With a relatively quiet calendar today, there will be some attention on the participation of several prominent officials at the Swedish Riksbank’s international symposium on central bank independence. It will be interesting to see whether there will be fresh insights on prospects for near-term monetary policy with the Fed, ECB and Bank of England all expected to raise interest rates again at their next meetings in early February. BoE Governor Bailey today will moderate a panel which includes Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and ECB Executive Board member Schnabel. Later, Fed Chair Powell is also scheduled to take part in a panel discussion.
There are no major UK data releases ahead today. Overnight, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported a decent 6.5% rise in like-for-like sales in December compared with a year earlier, driven by stronger food sales. These figures, however, are not adjusted for and are partly flattered by higher inflation. The Office for National Statistics will release official December figures next week.
Earlier this morning also saw the release of French industrial production data for November. They showed a rise of 2.0%m/m after the 2.5% fall in October Yesterday’s German figures also showed a rebound after an October decline. The outturn for the Eurozone will be released on Friday. Overall, the sector is continuing to be affected by weak demand, but there are hopes that prospects are starting to improve.
The only notable US release today is the December NFIB small business optimism index which appears to have broadly stabilised in recent months albeit remaining at weak levels. Markets are looking for a small decline in the headline index to 91.5 from 91.9 in November. As mentioned above, this week’s market attention, however, will be on Thursday’s US CPI report for further signs that both headline and core inflation is moderating.
Currencies remain in relatively tight ranges for now, with the US dollar paring some of its recent declines. The pound touched $1.22 but has since edged back down. US 10-year Treasury yields are broadly steady at recent lows.
The Bullish Triangle pattern, and how to use it The bullish triangle is a chart pattern that is formed by a horizontal support level and an upward sloping resistance level. This pattern is created when the price of an asset …
The Bullish Pennant pattern, and how to use it The bullish pennant is a chart pattern that is formed by an upward sloping resistance level and a converging support level. This pattern is created when the price of an asset …
Equities are mostly trading higher across the Asia-Pacific region buoyed by expectations that US interest rates may not have much further to rise, following last week’s reports of a contraction in the US services ISM and a slower pace of payroll hiring in December. Sentiment has also been boosted by the further reopening of China’s borders over the weekend by lifting quarantine rules for inbound travellers.
The extent to which major central banks will push up interest rates further – following sharp increases last year – remains a key consideration for markets in the early stages of 2023. Signs that inflation may have peaked across a number of developed economies around the turn of the year have fuelled expectations that interest rates may also reach a peak soon, with markets pricing in highs around mid-year. Nevertheless, with significant increases in policy rates still expected – particularly in the UK and Eurozone – incoming data releases will play a key part in how much of this expectation gets realised, especially with recession fears continuing to linger.
Ahead of more important economic data – in the shape of US CPI and UK GDP – later on this week, today’s economic data slate is relatively light on key releases. The Eurozone unemployment rate is expected to have stayed at 6.5% in November, while the Eurozone Semtex investor confidence report for January is forecast to show an improvement (consensus: -18 vs -21 in December), reflective of the positive start made by equities so far this year.
Domestically, no data releases are due today although the Bank of England’s Chief Economist, Huw Pill, is scheduled to speak on ‘The UK Economic and Monetary Policy Outlook’ at an even hosted by the Money Market Association of New York University. Speaking ahead of the December meeting, at which Mr Pill voted with the majority to increase Bank Rate by a further 50bp, he said that the Bank was “acting to pre-empt the danger that inflation in a persistent way departs from target”. With inflation still in the doubt digits, markets are factoring in a strong likelihood of another 50bp increase at the February MPC meeting.
In the US, following last week’s mixed US labour market report, markets will be watching comments from Federal Reserve officials, Bostic and Daly, this afternoon. However, with both not voting members of the FOMC this year, their comments may attract limited market reaction.
Overnight, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) will release its December retail trade report, which will give an insight into how the sector fared across the typically busy Christmas period.
The US dollar has fallen further overnight, adding to the decline seen on Friday post the December US payrolls and services ISM reports. US 2-yr Treasury yields are marginally higher but still remain over 20bp lower relative to levels that prevailed prior to the release of those reports on Friday.
Note: This content was auto-translated for international audiences 登录您的 MT5 平台 欢迎来到 Moneta Markets MT4 教程，了解如何创建新的交易配置文件。配置文件允许您将所有喜欢的仪器放在一个配置文件中，以便快速访问。现在，您会发现我在这里底部的仪器面板中有欧元，美元，瑞士和其他几种。 现在，如果我点击文件然后在配置文件上悬停，您会看到我已经保存了几个不同的配置文件。这些在 MT4 中默认提供：默认英镑，欧元市场概览和瑞士框架。如果我切换到欧元，您会发现欧元小时，四小时和每日都可用。 这个特定的配置文件访问三个时间框架，因此您可以快速在它们之间切换。您可能想要创建这样一个特定的配置文件的原因之一是，如果您想在下单前在仪器上查看多个时间框架，那么就可以这样做。因此，您可能会查看小时，四小时和每日，并且只有当所有三个都对齐时才下单。 因此，您可以在配置文件中有多个时间框架，因此可以快速在单击鼠标时在它们之间切换。现在让我们转到英镑配置文件。双击它，您会注意到我们有小时，四小时和每日。现在您可能在更低的时间范围内交易。因此，我们可能会做的是找到英镑，点击图表窗口，并将其推到左边，将其更改为五分钟图。然后我可能会做的是添加我们的 RSI，MA，NATR 模板。现在您可以看到英镑五分钟现在可用，并且它与小时，四小时和每日插入。让我现在带来 30 分钟。我将选择 30 分钟，并可能将它们对齐。因此，它会是五分钟，30 分钟，小时，四小时和每日。现在我们已经做出了这些更改，我们可以在这些之间无缝切换。但是现在我们想做的是保存它。因此，我们转到文件，配置文件，另存为。点击下拉箭头并选择英镑。如果您想创建一个新的，请在此处输入新名称，然后单击保存。但是我们。然后我们就准备好了。所以让我们说我们转到配置文件，然后点击欧元，然后回到英镑。您可以看到我们已经保存了它，现在我们有五分钟，30 分钟，小时，四小时和每日。这就是如何创建新的图表配置文件并保存它的方法。我们期待在下一个教程中与您见面。谢谢。
Asian stock markets rose ahead of the key US employment report later today, diverging from falls at the close on Wall Street. The main focus yesterday was the US ADP private sector jobs report which was stronger than expected, providing support for the dollar and Treasury yields. Latest Fed comments, as well as the December meeting minutes, signalled further rises in interest rates ahead and the likelihood of no cuts this year in contrast to market pricing for rate reductions in late 2023.
The December construction PMI survey is the only UK economic release today. The focus instead will be on Eurozone and US data reports, as well as several central bank (mainly Fed) speakers later today. In the Eurozone, lower energy prices are likely to have driven a marked fall in headline CPI inflation in December. Preliminary data already released for Germany, France and Spain have all surprised on the downside and suggest that today’s Eurozone flash CPI estimate may fall to close to 9%, below the consensus forecast of 9.5% and down from 10.1% in November. However, this will likely provide limited comfort for ECB policymakers, especially as core inflation excluding food and energy is forecast to continue accelerating. Eurozone retail sales and economic confidence are also due, with the latter potentially improving for a second consecutive month which would raise hopes of a shallow economic downturn in the single currency area. German factory orders earlier this morning, however, showed ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector.
In the US, the latest monthly labour market data are expected to add to the evidence of a labour market that remains resilient despite attempts by the Fed to slow the economy with higher interest rates. As noted above, yesterday’s ADP jobs report was stronger than expected and adds to the conviction level for our forecast for nonfarm payrolls to rise by 240k. The consensus forecast for a 200k rise. We also expect the unemployment rate to fall to 3.6% from 3.7%, compared with the consensus forecast for no change. Annual growth in average hourly earnings is expected to edge down to 5.0% from 5.1% but that would still be above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation goal. Other US data today include November factory orders and the December ISM services survey. We forecast the ISM index to ease back to 54.6 from 56.5 in November but remaining in growth territory.
As mentioned above, there are several central bank speakers today, mainly from the Fed but also including the ECB’s Chief Economist Philip Lane. As there have not been a lot of speeches over the holiday period, markets will likely pay close attention to latest comments from officials on the outlook for the year ahead.
The pound fell to $1.19 yesterday following the US ADP data and is moderately firmer overnight. US 10-year Treasury yields rose towards 3.80% but have since fallen back.
The Bullish Flag pattern, and how to use it The bullish flag is a chart pattern that is formed by an upward sloping resistance level and a horizontal support level. This pattern is created when the price of an asset …
US equity markets wavered after minutes from the December Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting warned that policymakers need to see “substantially more evidence” of easing inflation. The minutes suggest that interest rates have further to rise. Asian equities, nevertheless, were higher overnight led by tech stocks reflecting optimism about economic reopening in China. However, in the near term, rising infections may adversely impact on economic activity. China’s Caixin services PMI remained in contraction territory at 48.0, although it improved from 46.7 in November.
Domestically the final reading of the UK December services PMI and the latest Bank of England’s latest Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey of businesses will likely draw the most attention today. The preliminary ‘flash’ services PMI was somewhat better than predicted, rising back up to 50.0 ‘no change’ level from 48.8 in November. That indicated stagnant services activity in December after contractions in the prior two months. The manufacturing PMI survey, however, continued to signal contraction in December.
Separately, the results of the BoE’s latest DMP survey will be watched, particularly for what they reveal about firms’ inflation expectations. Policymakers have previously indicated that they take note of the data to assess risks to the inflation outlook.
In the Eurozone, November producer price output data for the bloc and preliminary Italian CPI inflation figures for December will be released this morning. Preliminary December CPI data already released for Germany, France and Spain have all surprised on the downside. They suggest that tomorrow’s Eurozone flash CPI estimate may fall to close to 9%, below the consensus forecast, from 10.1% in November. ECB policymakers, however, will likely remain concerned that core inflation, excluding food and energy, is continuing to accelerate.
In the US, the monthly ADP and weekly jobless claims reports will provide further insights into the state of the labour market. The ADP may offer hints for tomorrow’s official monthly payrolls report, although it has underestimated the official data in recent months. The consensus is for ADP private sector payrolls to have increased by 150k in December. Weekly initial jobless claims are still near recent and overall, the indications are that the labour market remains resilient. In addition, we expect the latest complete set of US trade figures to show a marked narrowing of the deficit to around $61.3bn in November from $78.2bn in October. That narrowing reflects a particularly sharp fall in goods imports on the month.
The pound weakened against the US dollar overnight at just above 1.20 and is also softer against the euro. UK gilt yields closed lower but US Treasury yields rose after hawkish-sounding Fed minutes. Tomorrow’s US official labour market data will be the most important near term release.
